Towards a closer ASEAN-China community: bridging the trust gap in pursuit of a shared future

Trust Gap, Complex Interdependence, South China Sea, ASEAN-China Community with a Shared Future, Belt and Road Initiative.

Abstract

This study explores China's efforts to advance its vision of a Community of Shared Future for Mankind (CSFM) in partnership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It argues that a persistent trust deficit remains a significant obstacle to achieving this vision. Based on research conducted in Laos, China, and select ASEAN countries, complemented by interviews with key stakeholders and insights from major conferences, the study adopts a qualitative approach using both primary and secondary sources. It investigates how China leverages the BRI to promote regional cooperation and shared development in pursuit of the CSFM objective. The trust gap is primarily driven by ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which continue to pose substantial challenges. Although negotiations for a code of conduct are ongoing, progress remains slow, and a comprehensive agreement has yet to be reached. Through the lens of complex interdependence, the study suggests that, despite geopolitical tensions, strengthening political, economic, and social ties—especially via BRI-related projects—offers meaningful opportunities to build trust and foster collaboration. It also emphasizes the importance of ASEAN’s strategic autonomy in maintaining regional stability. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the potential and limitations of creating a shared future in Southeast Asia by examining the intertwined dynamics of trust, connectivity, and autonomy.